Where the number comes from
+2.03
The age curve of the ratio, counted two ways, across 101 countries since 2010
Age-specific rates from national mortality registers divided by UN WPP 2024 population for the matching country, year, sex and five-year band. The right-hand column counts every undetermined-intent death as a suicide — an upper bound, not an estimate.
| age | as published | if undetermined counted | undet. share ♀ | undet. share ♂ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-19 | 2.29 | 2.56 | 0.228 | 0.308 |
| 20-24 | 3.65 | 3.91 | 0.235 | 0.287 |
| 25-29 | 3.72 | 3.96 | 0.234 | 0.280 |
| 30-34 | 3.58 | 3.79 | 0.230 | 0.271 |
| 35-39 | 3.50 | 3.69 | 0.216 | 0.255 |
| 40-44 | 3.41 | 3.51 | 0.209 | 0.233 |
| 45-49 | 3.30 | 3.36 | 0.201 | 0.217 |
| 50-54 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 0.198 | 0.210 |
| 55-59 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 0.207 | 0.207 |
| 60-64 | 3.52 | 3.50 | 0.218 | 0.214 |
| 65-69 | 3.40 | 3.33 | 0.233 | 0.217 |
| 70-74 | 3.47 | 3.21 | 0.271 | 0.211 |
| 75-79 | 3.86 | 3.24 | 0.340 | 0.214 |
| 80-84 | 4.28 | 3.19 | 0.422 | 0.225 |
| 85-89 | 5.02 | 3.15 | 0.526 | 0.243 |
| 90-94 | 5.88 | 3.18 | 0.611 | 0.280 |
| 95-99 | 6.18 | 2.84 | 0.723 | 0.397 |
The bolded row is 55-59, where the gendered gap in undetermined coding crosses zero. Below it, young men's deaths are the ones more often filed as undetermined (0.228 against 0.308 at 15-19). Above it, the direction reverses and keeps widening.
| young (15-34) | oldest (80-99) | change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| as published | 3.31 | 5.34 | +2.03 |
| if undetermined counted | 3.55 | 3.09 | −0.46 |
At the oldest band the two accountings differ by more than the entire published rise. That gap is the finding: the pattern is smaller than the uncertainty it is drawn from.
