Where the number comes from
13
Provinces whose 2021 minimum wage is impossible — caught without any source outside the file
Three tests, none of which needs a source outside the file. Indonesian minimum wages are nominally non-decreasing, and in this file no province has a 2020 wage above its 2022 wage — so a 2021 value outside that bracket is not surprising, it is impossible.
test one · which year disagrees with its neighbours
| correlation between two wage columns | ρ |
|---|---|
| 2020 × 2022 · the two that skip it | +0.9958 |
| 2020 × 2021 | +0.6812 |
| 2021 × 2022 | +0.6723 |
| 2019 × 2020 · a normal pair, for scale | +0.9944 |
The two years either side of it agree almost perfectly with each other while both disagree with 2021. A real year cannot do that: to sit between two years that match, it would have to match them too.
test two and three · which rows, and whose numbers
| province | 2020 | in file | 2022 | the value belongs to | off by | row gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAMBI | 2,630,162 | 2,788,826 | 2,698,941 | GORONTALO 2020 | exact | +24 |
| BENGKULU | 2,213,604 | 2,460,996 | 2,238,094 | BANTEN 2020 | Rp 1 | +9 |
| KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG | 3,230,024 | 3,000,804 | 3,264,884 | KALIMANTAN UTARA 2020 | exact | +15 |
| DKI JAKARTA | 4,276,350 | 1,765,000 | 4,641,854 | — matches nothing in the file | ||
| JAWA BARAT | 1,810,351 | 2,630,162 | 1,841,487 | JAMBI 2020 | exact | −7 |
| DI YOGYAKARTA | 1,704,608 | 2,215,000 | 1,840,916 | — matches nothing in the file | ||
| BANTEN | 2,460,997 | 3,230,023 | 2,501,203 | KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG 2020 | Rp 1 | −7 |
| KALIMANTAN BARAT | 2,399,699 | 1,868,777 | 2,434,328 | — matches nothing in the file | ||
| KALIMANTAN TENGAH | 2,903,145 | 2,877,448 | 2,922,516 | KALIMANTAN SELATAN 2020 | Rp 1 | +1 |
| KALIMANTAN SELATAN | 2,877,449 | 2,399,698 | 2,906,473 | KALIMANTAN BARAT 2020 | Rp 1 | −2 |
| KALIMANTAN TIMUR | 2,981,379 | 2,903,144 | 3,014,497 | KALIMANTAN TENGAH 2020 | Rp 1 | −2 |
| KALIMANTAN UTARA | 3,000,804 | 2,981,378 | 3,016,738 | KALIMANTAN TIMUR 2020 | Rp 1 | −1 |
| GORONTALO | 2,788,826 | 4,416,186 | 2,800,580 | — matches nothing in the file |
13 of 34 provinces break the bracket. 9 of them are holding another province's wage, to within two rupiah.
the obvious explanation, and why it is wrong A single column that slipped one row is the usual cause of this, and it is the first thing to test. Shifting the whole 2021 column back by one row and re-checking against 2020 makes the agreement worse, not better: +0.2101 against +0.6812 for the file as it stands. The row gaps in the table above are irregular. This is a scramble, not a shift, and the repair is not available from inside the file.
There is a fingerprint. Several displaced values sit exactly one rupiah from their source, and two provinces that otherwise froze their wage are off by exactly one rupiah too (LAMPUNG, SULAWESI TENGGARA). A one-rupiah error is not a typing mistake or a policy decision. It is what a number looks like after a round trip through a floating-point value, which suggests this column reached the file down a different path than the others.
what the year actually was, and what keeping it would have done
| provinces with a usable 2021 value | 21 |
| of those, froze the wage exactly | 18 |
| median people per wage, 2021 as published | 5.03 |
| its spread (CV), against 0.223 in a clean year | 0.297 |
| its range | 2.53 – 11.33 |
The pandemic freeze is visible in the file only once the corrupted rows are set aside. And the median barely moves, which is why this is dangerous: an analysis that reported only medians would have published 2021 without noticing anything at all.
